Communication Chaos!

Have you noticed that the more means of communications we have, it appears as though we might be communicating less? To illustrate the problem, I created a list of my communication patterns.

Let’s begin with the devices I use:

  1. My mobile phone – an iPhone – on me all the time. Charged at night on my bedside, but silent and on my belt all day. It’s connected to the Internet but only when I am traveling domestically (otherwise, it’s occasionally connected on WiFi). Loaded with over 200 apps, including Mail, Skype, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Viber and many more communication apps. The phone has a voice mail that I check rarely – about once a month! Continue reading Communication Chaos!

The future is already here! Or is it?

I’ve been asked to deliver an opening keynote at an upcoming conference. In this talk, I’ve been asked to survey future technologies and how they might shape communication service providers landscape. To prepare, I started jotting down a list of all the interesting future technologies and it immediately occurred to me that many of these are already here with us today. This reminded me of the quote by William Gibson – “the future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed”.

And indeed, the difference between today and the future is often merely the pervasiveness of these technologies. In most cases, the technologies exist and their potential can be anticipated to a large extent, if considered carefully.

But then I wondered whether I missed something or got my estimates wrong.

It’s much easier to see the direction of a trend than to know when it will be realized. For example, we all know that at some point in the future, cars will drive themselves. The question isn’t whether or not this will happen. The question is only “when?” this will be a reality. Similarly, we can now all see that at some point in the future, people will barely use paper books. These will become a thing of the past. The really interesting question is “when?” will this future be reality. Certainly in less than 100 years, perhaps less than 20, and perhaps even less than 10 years from now.

Why is this critical?

Well, innovators must get their timing right – bringing a solution to market too early can be as devastating to a venture as bringing it too late.

So I was thinking, perhaps inspired by my crowdfunding blog post, that you might help me figure out if I got it right. I’m going to put forth my initial estimate of when and why I believe a set of technologies will become mature and pervasive (not ubiquitous). When I say “pervasive”, I mean when will the technology be widely used – perhaps as much as 25% of the potential users will already be using it. At that point in time, it would probably not yet completely take over its predecessor technology.

Then, I’d like you to help me. Please point out any important technologies I have missed (note that I intentionally dropped over 40 items from this list, as otherwise this would have become a very long list) and also comment on the time you think they would become pervasive and why.

So here we go: the technologies, when they will mature, and why:

Is this our future?

Tech Trend Year when   pervasive (at least 25% of the users) Why
Mobile Money / Peer-to-Peer (P2P) money exchange

2014 / 2017

In developing economies this will come sooner and will gradually penetrate developed economies.
Location-Based Services (LBS)

2015

Some might argue that we’re already there with so many GPS-enabled smartphones. The question is when will 25% of users be expecting and using services and experiences based on their location.
Internet-connected TV

2015

I believe it will take that long to reach a quarter of the population. To some degree, we’re still in early-adopter phase right now. And I don’t distinguish here between the various methods to net-enable the TV experience.
Cloud computing

2016

Till cloud computing operates a quarter of business compute resources.
Telepresence

2017

What is marketed today by some vendors as Telepresence is simply higher quality video conferencing. The original vision of Telepresence has taken a backseat. I here refer to that real vision and refer to it in a business context. It’s when companies have telepresence rather than high quality video conferencing.
Near-Field Communication (NFC)

2018

It might take some time to roll out this technology for contactless payment systems, for instance. Especially in developed economies where alternative forms of credit and payment are widespread.
Zero emission alternative energy powers the world

2018

Costs must come down and the substantial focus on “green” and various incentives will help bring that about, eventually.
3D TV

2018

Until 3D TV is in 25% of the homes. See my blog post about 3D TV.
Social communications

2018

People use free communication via social media and P2P VoIP/IM rather than paid services by communication service providers to conduct most of their communication.
Cloud-based operating systems (truly thin clients) – or is this a cycle?

2018

Thin/thick, dumb/smart terminal is a pendulum. Will it swing back (e.g. Chrome)? Perhaps, as connectivity truly becomes ubiquitous.
eBooks replace books in all current forms of use (including education)

2019

It will take a few years to acquire all these books for educational institutions, but eventually, it’ll happen.
Mobile broadband at 10 Mbps

2019

Late stages of 4G technologies might get there on existing spectrum and consumer insatiable demand for bandwidth.
Ubiquitous broadband connectivity

2019

There is an expectation that for most populated areas on the planet, anybody traveling there can receive an affordable broadband connection.
High-efficiency inductive charging

2019

Aren’t we tired with all the wired chargers? At some point these will be replaced, no? How about 8 years from now?
Smart meters

2019

Smart energy saving devices in the home and remotely accessible and administered power meters will roll out, eventually. There are some geographies (such as Italy) where this might have already happened, but when will it reach a quarter of the users?
Telemedicine

2019

Medical professionals will routinely monitor patients from remote.
Natural gesture interfaces (e.g. touch, hand gestures, vocals) will be used for almost everything

2021

I’m not yet sure these interfaces are always better. Right now, I’m using a keyboard, for instance. However, in the future I might use Gmail Motion. It was announced April 1, 2011. You must check it out.
The Internet of Things / Machine to Machine (M2M)

2021

Since these are not “used by people”, it doesn’t exactly make sense to talk about pervasiveness in terms of users. Therefore, the benchmark here is a bit different – when 25% of “things” are connected to the net that are not operated by people. So for this, tablets, smartphones, PCS would not count. I think it will take longer than some anticipate.
Self-driving vehicles

2021

Not too far into the future, we’ll see these in our neighborhood. Wouldn’t that be cool?
The semantic web

2021

Everything’s meaning is connected and understood. When we ask questions, the meaning will be used to determine the answer.
Digital life integration

2026

Our digital lives are still very disparate. Contacts, calendars, music, photos, videos, etc. All created and stored on a variety of devices and mediums and not easily accessible. It will take some time to resolve this in a pervasively available method, but it’s bound to eventually be solved.
Voice and text simultaneous translation

2026

I don’t think this is ready yet and it might be comical today.
Artificial body part replacement for many more parts

2026

The brain will probably be the last to be replaceable, but I believe it too will be “bionically” enhanced in due course. Before then we’ll have all sorts of limbs and internal organs.
Cure for cancer

2026

This is for many forms of cancer, through genetically specific and personal medicine. Optimistic, perhaps. Something to hope for.
Physical books no longer in practical use

2031

Seeing a physical book will become a rarity. Libraries will, effectively, be museums. Most will not exist as all books are accessible online and on reading devices anywhere.
All storage be cloud-based

2031

We’ll no longer have DVDs and BluRay discs, or any other portable medium for that matter, all data will be cloud-resident. No more new forms of media will be required by individuals.
Home automation

2031

If you’re wealthy, you can have full automation of your home today. When will this be a reality for 25% of the population? The issue is retrofitting existing homes, of course. That’s a long cycle.
Affordable brain-power computer (yet not brain-capable)

2031

One can buy a computer, like a PC today, but its power will be able to compute the equivalent of a human brain. However, as it will not operate like a human brain, it will have only niche uses.
Affordable space tourism

2036

You won’t have to be filthy rich and it becomes an everyday occurrence. Those with income at the top 10 percentile will be able to afford a trip. Some believe it’s nearly here already. Not me.
Cold fusion

2036

Hmmm. Not much to base my assessment here, I’m afraid.
Virtual tourism

2041

You can have the full experience of travel, without leaving a facility. Not just as “an experiment”, but as actual replacement for tourism… I don’t how attractive this will ever become.
Interplanetary human travel

2071

Ditto

Some observations

If all this is true (and it certainly isn’t), there are some rather funny consequences. For example, this would imply that in 15 years we will have cured cancer and have self-driving vehicles, yet our home would not yet be fully automated. Also, if much of this plays itself out as suggested, the next two decades are going to be extremely exciting, don’t you think?

I’m the first to admit that this table certainly has many errors and omissions. In fact, this is not a set of concrete predictions so much as it is a straw man for you all to tear up and suggest corrections.

Call to action

Please, help identify notable omissions and correct these estimates, and perhaps our collective wisdom will provide better insight into our future.

My plunge into crowdfunding

Crowdfunding – the notion of funding “something” by collecting funds from the crowd, is not new. Philanthropy has many such examples and 3 years ago, Barack Obama’s campaign for presidency was an astonishing example of how it could become extremely effective. By some accounts, there are over 150 web sites that support various forms of crowdfunding.

My plunge into crowdfunding occurred a few months ago.

Let me tell you the story:

Continue reading My plunge into crowdfunding

Welcome to my new blog location!

Welcome to www.givoly.com. I’ve been sitting on the domain for 5 years not knowing exactly what to do with it. Now I have a place for my new blog. On this blog I’ll share my views and observations about a diverse set of areas, usually involving technology, innovation, gadgets, and service providers. I plan to keep blogging at least once every 3-4 weeks. Each post is more of an article rather than just one concept – but that might change over time. I read all comments and respond to most.

I’m quite busy these days while trying to found a startup or two. More on that will come when I have something to share.

In the meantime, check out the previous blog posts (below) you might have missed and subscribe to the site via email or RSS. Within a week (I usually post on Tuesday) I’ll also publish my forthcoming blog post about “crowdfunding”.  Subscribe to stay tuned.

Last but not least, I’d like to greatly thank Oded Cnaan that helped me set up this blog.

Welcome!

Tal

CES 2011 Wrap-up

Over 140,000 people attended CES 2011

It’s quite a challenge to add to the plethora of CES 2011 blogs. This post puts together some of my key observations. I didn’t touch on everything I saw and might have even missed key insights, so it’s not “the definitive” guide to anything CES. The show is huge and there were over 140,000 people there, so it wasn’t easy to catch all the action. But I did see a lot, and gain some insight along the way:

Continue reading CES 2011 Wrap-up

“Appcessories” are key ingredients to Apple’s success

Updated on January 7, 2011: Thanks to feedback, it has come to my attention that there were some errors in the original post, for which I apologize. I therefore updated the post to correct these errors. As always, this blog reflects my views and opinions and does not necessarily reflect opinions of anybody else. I am personally responsible for any errors I make, and therefore am glad to correct.

When people talk about Apple’s success with the iPhone, they attribute some of it to the huge success of the Apple App Store that has over 300,000 applications that were downloaded over 7 billion times (as of Oct 20, 2010).

Applications + Accessories = Appcessories!

Apple’s App Store is bigger, in terms of numbers, than any other mobile application store. But this provides only part of the picture. I think there are actually three key ingredients to Apple’s success with the iPhone – together they make up what I now call “appcessories“:

Continue reading “Appcessories” are key ingredients to Apple’s success

Thinking outside the box at Management World Americas

I recently attended TM Forum’s Management World Americas in Orlando, the largest BSS/OSS event in the industry. The key theme of this year’s event was about how to unlock new monetization opportunities as carriers look to recoup network investments. One approach discussed was to leverage existing networks and service enablers. The other approach to monetization discussed was to create of new services—cloud services were probably the most talked about development at the event. I thought this poster I saw at the event was a poignant reminder of the vast untapped potential that many see in existing services.

Several of the keynotes and debates were around enabling the two-sided business model suggested by the Telco 2.0 initiative.

I agree that these are indeed great opportunities, yet the orthodoxies of the industry are clearly holding us all back from exploiting these and other opportunities.

Innovation Workshop – What happens when we let go of our preconceptions?

I always present, moderate a session track, or lead some other activity at Management World events that I attend. This time, the forum added a new format on the third day: “intensive debate”. Within this framework, I led an interactive workshop on “Digital Service Innovation – the new era of service provider innovation”. Here are a few pictures from the workshop as well as a short video. As you can see, it was very interactive.

httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4WjLdMq3z4

Continue reading Thinking outside the box at Management World Americas

Industry Standards – Thoughts from Management World Americas 2010

 

How TM Forum specifications can become as effective as industry leading standards

I’ve been involved in industry forums and standard bodies for many years. I’ve had experience in creating industry standards and getting them adopted. I’ve seen many successes and failures of these standardization efforts. It’s never easy to get agreement and even more difficult to get the right standards created and adopted.

Having just come back from Management World Americas in Orlando, the largest OSS/BSS (Operations Support Systems / Business Support systems) event in the industry, it’s gotten me thinking about the standards and frameworks set by TM Forum, and how they might be improved.

Continue reading Industry Standards — Thoughts from Management World Americas 2010

Our response to Ofcom and the European Commission regarding Net Neutrality

This blog post was co-authored with John Oswald. John is a consulting manager out of our consulting division and is based in the UK. He also blogs. Recently, John and I worked together on responding on behalf of Amdocs to Ofcom’s public consultation on Net Neutrality and the European Commission’s consultation on the Open Internet and Net Neutrality. Attached you can find our formal detailed responses (Amdocs Response to Ofcom inquiry regarding Net Neutrality and Amdocs Response to European Commission’s Net Neutrality Consultation). Here’s a slightly more personal perspective:  

Why I’d love Net Neutrality

Speaking as a consumer I would instinctively love the idea of net neutrality. I’d love everything I do on the Internet to be treated equally. No different from that experienced by any other person. I would like to be able to access every site with the same speed and the same quality of experience. I’d like to be able to share stuff with peers. I’d like to be able to serve any content from my own servers or web site, and do so at the same speeds and latency that Google does. I’d love to be able to do all that. It would also mean that I could access any file, any file type, any type of data, from any server and any peer – using any service, unencumbered and unfettered by the network provider I just happen to be connected to in order to have access to it all. 

Basically, wouldn’t it be great if internet access was a human right, a little bit like access to the oxygen we need in order to breathe? Although the quality is not uniform, just about every living person on the planet has unrestricted access to oxygen. Continue reading Our response to Ofcom and the European Commission regarding Net Neutrality

The Age of Consent

Post co-authored with Oded Cnaan, Director Innovation Business Development.

As I said in a previous post, the topic of social media is one I’ll be returning to often.

“There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment. How often, or on what system, the Thought Police plugged in on any individual wire was guesswork. It was even conceivable that they watched everybody all the time.”

George Orwell from “1984”

In the “old days”, before social media sites governed the earth, people were passive spectators in the great “WWW” show. Surfing the Web was about searching and consuming content with very little personal exposure. Back then, passionate discussions were held about the potential danger of cookies as they could reveal your IP address, and most people did not even consider disclosing their email address in public sites.

But this is all water under the bridge. Today, with more than 500 million Facebook registered users and 105 million Twitter users and 370,000 added daily, the rules of the game have definitely changed: most social network sites require users to provide personal profiles. Some sites, like Twitter, ask for only basic information while other, like LinkedIn and Facebook, offer a very detailed profile that includes personal details, employment and education history, likes and interests and more.

Continue reading The Age of Consent

About Innovation: Why we hung movie posters on our office walls

Click to enlarge

A key part of my day job is looking at how Amdocs, as a company, continuously improves its innovation capabilities and becomes an innovation powerhouse. So, I’m going to start a series of “About Innovation” posts talking about this—welcome to the first installment! I have so many things to tell you about what we do at Amdocs to nurture a culture of innovation and to become an effective innovator. So in order to help me choose which topics to discuss, I’ll rely on your feedback to help guide me.

So why did we hang a bunch of movie posters across the company?

We wanted to make sure everybody in the company, and beyond, understands that “innovation works” at Amdocs. Not only that we are seeing the results of our innovation activities, but also that it is really worth it for all the various stakeholders, and in particular, one community was most of interest to me – the innovators themselves. As a large company, we have many processes to help weed out variability in our day-to-day operations, in order to consistently recreate our successes, consistently produce quality products, and consistently deliver massive transformation projects for the world’s largest service providers. You cannot do these things consistently without good established processes and best practices—so we have many of these. But that can make innovation, challenging, as it requires trying something that’s new and different, and not part of the established process. Some might think that innovators might not fit in this culture. Well, they are wrong. Innovators can fit in, and we need them. But it takes some adjusting and encouragement to make this happen.

Continue reading About Innovation: Why we hung movie posters on our office walls

The Impact of Social Communications on Communication Service Providers

This blog post is going to be a little bit different than the past few posts. This time, I really need your ideas about a topic that’s been on my mind for a while. I’m just going to tee up the discussion and ask you all to help with ideas.

I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the tsunami of social media, and in particular, that of social communications, and its impact on communication service providers – in particular, on fixed line and mobile operators. Social communications are the communications facilitated by social media, especially in the form of Facebook and Twitter, but also LinkedIn, YouTube, blogs and talkbacks. While social media impacts all businesses – which I’ll touch on briefly – the sector which is most affected by social media is the communication service providers whose core business is providing means of communications and connectivity, mostly paid services. Social communications are obviously competing with and are possibly disruptive to the business of communication service providers. With this in mind, I pose the following question:

What should communication service providers do in order to mitigate the impact or even benefit from the evolution of social communications?

Continue reading The Impact of Social Communications on Communication Service Providers

How Apple Can Still Beat Android

Last week – what most predicted – has finally happened: Android passed Apple iPhone in global units sold. This was no surprise. Google’s Android has a much more effective distribution mechanism than Apple’s iPhone. Apple’s iPhone is made by one manufacturer, Apple, and in the US, is only distributed by one service provider – AT&T. On the other hand, Google’s mobile operating system, Android, runs on many hardware manufacturers’ devices (HTC, Motorola, Samsung and others) and is distributed by many service providers in almost every region. It was just a matter of time until this strategy paid off for Google.

This raises the question: Will Android do to the iPhone what Windows has done to the Macintosh? More specifically, will Android make iPhone a niche solution? Even though the Mac was the first successful computer to have a graphical user interface and a mouse, Microsoft came from behind with Windows and reduced the Apple Macintosh computer to about 4% market share. It did so by making Windows practically ubiquitous – distributed by practically all other PC manufacturers.

Is Google Android going to do the same to the iPhone? All early indications are that it will.

So what might Apple do in order to prevent history from repeating itself?

Continue reading How Apple Can Still Beat Android

Why OTT Video Might Not Be So Disruptive After All

Earlier this year, I presented at OTTcon. This was the first major conference about OTT (video) ever, and was attended by a few hundred people and many industry players. Coming into this conference, I was under the distinct impression that OTT is a significant disruption to traditional service provider business and that it would have a significant and negative long-term impact on that marketplace. The common wizdom is that service providers who have the most to lose will be the least motivated to support OTT, and will therefore be the last to embrace it, if ever, will ultimately face the disruptive impact most of all, possibly losing their video distribution business over time.

But—I came out of the conference with the opposite conclusion! It’s not that OTT won’t be disruptive – it will, but not “as” disruptive as one might expect. And most of the market players will probably remain in place and not be sidelined by OTT. If it were truly disruptive, it would harm the existing service providers more than I expect it actually will.

Why? Because I think the current service providers themselves will ultimately be the ones that enable OTT content, thus avoiding a major disruption – whether they know it right now or not! In fact, right now, they’re doing very little, and most OTT is being enabled by others. So why do I think they’ll wake up in time? Read on to find out.

How OTT might get to the viewers

Some background

In case you’re wondering, OTT means “over the top” and it refers to all traffic that flows “on top” of broadband access, typically provided by someone else. For the service provider who provides the access to the Internet, this is just “data”, but for the consumer, this is “video”. While there are many other types of OTT content, this conference was only about video. When I’ll use of the term and “OTT” here, I’m referring only to over-the-top video content.

Continue reading Why OTT Video Might Not Be So Disruptive After All

Why some people THINK they will NEVER get an iPhone

The iPhone is now more than 3 years old. I love my iPhone (and my iPad). I’m still on my 3GS, after going through the original iPhone (2G) and the iPhone 3G, and awaiting an opportunity to get the iPhone 4. I seemed to think almost anybody could benefit from an iPhone as their main mobile communication and computing device. So while I understand why all people don’t have one quite YET, it surprises me from time to time when people tell me it’s simply not for them. It’s not that they are waiting for a particular feature – they claim that they will not want an iPhone EVER.

That got me thinking: why are these (otherwise intelligent) people so dead set on NEVER having an iPhone? So I asked them about their reasons. It turns out some of them are due to misunderstanding. They are unaware that the iPhone can do what they want or has a perfectly usable alternative way to do the job. But some reasons are more real and permanent.

So here are the dozen explanations I got for why these people claim they will NEVER have an iPhone (in no particular order), along with whether I see this reason as real or imagined, and why. While it might seem like I invented some of these reasons, I assure you that all of these are actual responses I’ve gotten from people I’ve asked.

Continue reading Why some people THINK they will NEVER get an iPhone

Tal Givoly on Internet, gadgets, health, communications, entrepreneurship, innovation, consumer electronics and more!